Fabula
S3E1 · Manchester Part I
S3E1
· Manchester Part I Flashback

Toby Forces Consensus on Urgent New Poll as Drenched Pollsters Reinforce Plea

In a flashback to the White House Mess four weeks earlier, Toby demands a fresh poll post-MS disclosure, igniting debate among Josh, Sam, C.J., Ed, and Larry on the prior Michigan poll's flaws: unrepresentative sample, governor-vs-president dynamics, Bartlet's trustworthiness shield, and MS's non-fatal nature. Consensus builds. Soaked Joey and Kenny burst in from the rain—abandoned by the motorcade in comic relief courtesy of Josh—passionately echoing the urgency, claiming Bartlet shone on TV. Josh seals unity: 'Put a poll in the field.' This turning point resolves internal skepticism, injecting cautious optimism into the re-election strategy amid cover-up fallout.

Plot Beats

The narrative micro-steps within this event

4

Toby demands an immediate new poll, sparking a debate among the staff about the validity of the previous poll and Bartlet's public perception.

urgency to agreement ['White House Mess']

Joey and Kenny arrive drenched, interrupting the debate, with Joey passionately insisting on a new poll despite the others already agreeing.

surprise to frustration

Josh humorously deflects Joey's anger, lightening the mood before the group reaffirms the need for a new poll.

tension to relief

The scene concludes with Kenny and Joey leaving after the team reaches consensus on the necessity of a new poll.

resolution to departure

Who Was There

Characters present in this moment

7

Assured confidence in data-driven rebuttal

Sam dives in explaining the prior poll's bogus nature, highlights Bartlet's trustworthiness highs and MS non-fatality reveal, affirms Joey's points succinctly to reinforce emerging unity.

Goals in this moment
  • Expose Michigan poll's statistical weaknesses
  • Bolster Bartlet's image via trustworthiness metrics
Active beliefs
  • MS disclosure enhances public trust
  • Trust scores insulate against scandal fallout
Character traits
analytical confident supportive
Follow Sam Seaborn's journey

Quiet solidarity amid wet discomfort

Kenny enters drenched alongside Joey, silently supports her poll plea via signing before they depart, embodying the pollsters' soaked frontline urgency.

Goals in this moment
  • Reinforce Joey's polling imperative
  • Align with staff on data refresh
Active beliefs
  • Fresh polls capture post-MS shift
  • Team consensus drives campaign wins
Character traits
loyal urgent non-verbal
Follow Kenny Lucas's journey
Josh Lyman
primary

Skeptical amusement turning to resolute optimism

Josh probes skeptically with 'Yeah?', debates governor dynamics and motorcade abandonment playfully, absorbs Joey's rant lightheartedly, then decisively seals consensus by ordering the new poll into the field.

Goals in this moment
  • Validate poll flaws to build team buy-in
  • Humorously defuse tension from Joey's arrival
Active beliefs
  • Incumbent presidents outpoll governors
  • Comic mishaps strengthen group bonds
Character traits
skeptical playful decisive
Follow Josh Lyman's journey

Urgent frustration laced with wry sarcasm

Toby kicks off the debate by demanding a new poll, presides over the group's dissection of Michigan flaws with sharp impatience, delivers sarcastic thanks upon consensus, then rises invoking DuPont Circle analogy to punctuate the gridlock-breaking unity.

Goals in this moment
  • Force immediate agreement on new polling
  • Cut through staff skepticism to advance re-election data
Active beliefs
  • Michigan poll is fundamentally invalid
  • Bartlet's post-MS strength demands fresh metrics
Character traits
commanding sarcastic impatient
Follow Toby Ziegler's journey
Joey Lucas
primary

Rain-fueled frustration masking fervent conviction

Joey bursts in soaking wet with Kenny, demands another poll passionately, reiterates governor-president and sample flaws, blasts Josh as an 'idiot' for the motorcade snub while praising Bartlet's TV poise, exits after signing exchange.

Goals in this moment
  • Amplify urgency for new poll data
  • Vent motorcade betrayal for accountability
Active beliefs
  • Bartlet's TV performance boosts viability
  • Michigan flaws invalidate prior results
Character traits
passionate frustrated tenacious
Follow Joey Lucas's journey
Supporting 1
Leo McGarry
secondary

agreeable

Explains voter preference for incumbent president if country is on right track, notes Bartlet's high trustworthiness scores, admits mistaking Joey's waving for happiness.

Goals in this moment
  • Highlight reasons to discount previous poll
Character traits
stoic assertive resolute loyal compassionate
Follow Leo McGarry's journey

Location Details

Places and their significance in this event

3
Dupont Circle

Toby analogizes the poll deadlock to DuPont Circle's honking gridlock as he rises, cleverly framing the breakthrough consensus as escaped urban snarl, injecting wry levity before Joey's rain complaint echoes the chaos.

Atmosphere Mirrored traffic frustration yielding to flow
Function Humorous metaphor for resolving debate impasse
Symbolism D.C. congestion symbolizing political logjams broken
Horns blasting defiance Engines snarling in commuter vise
Michigan

Michigan is dissected as the flawed poll's origin—its 1,170 industrial voters skewing national views on Bartlet versus governors—serving as the debate's punching bag, its weaknesses catalyzing consensus for broader sampling.

Atmosphere Evoked as a skeptical shadow over national optimism
Function Referenced battleground exposing data invalidity
Symbolism Industrial heartland embodying unrepresentative pitfalls
Factory-shadowed voter pools Governor defiance clashing with presidential aura
White House Portico

The White House Mess serves as the gritty subterranean crucible where staffers huddle amid coffee steam and newspapers, debating poll flaws with rising energy; Joey and Kenny's rain-soaked entrance heightens the chaotic intimacy, transforming it into a forge for re-election resolve amid MS tremors.

Atmosphere Tense banter escalating to unified urgency, punctuated by comic relief
Function Impromptu war room for polling strategy session
Symbolism Underground bunker mirroring campaign's buried tensions surfacing
Access Restricted to core White House staff and invited pollsters
Scarred laminate tables Dented coffee urns steaming Fluorescent glare etching faces Crumpled newspapers on tables

Narrative Connections

How this event relates to others in the story

What this causes 1
Causal medium

"Toby's demand for a new poll sets the stage for C.J.'s subsequent exhaustion and press conference blunder."

C.J.'s Exhausted Briefing Draws Press Fire on Marine Casualties
S3E1 · Manchester Part I

Themes This Exemplifies

Thematic resonance and meaning

Key Dialogue

"TOBY: "We need a new poll in the field right now.""
"TOBY: "Thank you all for coming around to the self-evident point I made five minutes ago.""
"JOSH: "Put a poll in the field.""